The study ‘How to incorporate climate change projections in the probabilistic assessment of civil structures’ investigates how climate change projections can be considered in the probabilistic design and assessment of civil structures, aiming to bridge the gap between structural engineers and climate experts.
The study provides an overview of the current knowledge related to the global IPCC and the regional (the Netherlands) KNMI climate change projections, with a special focus on the (modelling) uncertainties. It duscusses the question mentioned in the title. For an adequate design and assessment, uncertainties of all kinds should be considered explicitly. This includes uncertainties related to different (climate) scenarios and inexact (climate) models.
The study concludes that for both the global and regional projections, there currently is a discrepancy between the available information about uncertainties on the one hand, and the information needed for the safety assessment on the other hand. A possible step towards finding a common ground would be to build up a close collaboration between climate experts and engineers and address these issues as good as possible within the limitations of science.
Het volledige artikel over dit onderzoek zoals het is gepubliceerd in het tijdschrift HERON, vol. 67, 2022 (http://heronjournal.nl/index.html), is hieronder te downloaden.
Onderzoek-Nadieh-HERON-climate85.pdf [1453.9 kB]